Saturday, July 5, 2008

Is the notorious Inflation Curving??

The WPI index continued soaring upwards for 14 continuous weeks now.
But are the mixture of Monetary and fiscal policy, that hit the markets hard, are helping inflation curve ???After a drastic hike to 11.05 on 21st April Inflation was supposed to touch 13% by this week.
But known for its surprises inflation,which has undone all the maths of the speculators,has barely touched 12%.
Is this a sign of Optimism????Is it that Bulls are going to take the game away from the Bears now????
The moment we say yes, we might be hit hard by market downfall.
The moment we say no, there might be series of short covering in the market that can move the markets up.
Markets have over corrected, i.e we have returned to the point from where the BULL Run began last year.
None of us know, none of us can predict.
Already major of the speculations have been undone and proven wrong this year.
Lets look at the positive news of the markets-
1) Price of Wheat and similar commodities(food items) have actually reduced under the shadows of high inflation due to good yield this year.
Already the government is planning for increasing more subsidies in wheat as the government have more than required wheat in its reserves.
2)Arbitragers have made some money in this downfall.
3) Volumes have returned to the psychological Reliance group. With RNRL leading the race as far as volumes are concerned.
4)Markets have over corrected, i.e we have returned to the point from where the BULL Run began last year.
5)Bonds Yield hitting new seven years high. 10 year yield to cross 8.86 soon.
6)Despite all the bad news on the oil front, Indian consumers can hope to remain insulated from any price hike for the next couple of months. It is learnt that the government is planning to review oil prices only in October.
7)Rising price of steel once again spurred the government machinery into action with the steel ministry on Thursday getting all the major producers to agree for a set of stringent administrative action to check price rise and curb inflationary pressure. Steel companies have now agreed not only to check hoarding and price rise at retail level but have also decided to introduce a new system of MRP-based pricing for preventing consumers from getting cheated by retailers. Steel pipe and tube makers have also agreed to cap their product price after reducing market price by over 10 per cent.

Bad news!!We all know it well!!
But for the time being all we can do is sit back and watch market being butchered by Politics and not inflation and listen to our Finance minister commenting on how our Economy's fundamentals are strong and what GDP we will be pursuing for the coming year.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Markets are yet to find their bottom. just sit and wait dear.. The "oil shock" is far from over and we are no longer insulated from it. You never know who is driving the markets and with the inflation not easing so quickly i dont see any hopes of a strong recovery.. What happened in the last tow days was nothing more than a bunch of buyer going for seemingly attractive stocks..

Riddhiman Jain TNSIA said...

Ya u seem to be right but my personal opinion is that Inflation now no longer will be the spoilsport as far as markets are concerned.
I agree that there is a further downside for the markets but that will be now due to central political unstability.Atleast for the short term ahead.

Anonymous said...

i'm not bearish on the markets and i still believe that real story is in india but the markets ran too fast too quickly.We are in a stage where indian markets are being redefined with P\E ratios no longer close to 10. So we should take a cautious approach towards the markets. The political instability etc are really shortliving factors and markets in the long run will be driven by fundamentals. At least i hope that.
btw i'm the same anonymous:)

Riddhiman Jain TNSIA said...

Ya i accept very well that Indians market were overvalued, but now properly corrected and i guess overcorrected and highly undermined.
For the time being i m sure the bulls will take on now.
If any investments are to be made, no peroid could have been so good as it is now.
And yes i would like to interact further, if not here den on Gtalk.