Friday, September 19, 2008

Its pouring dollars!!!Can we have it???


Pre Script: Thank you all for the comments and the criticism too!!!But i would appreciate if you post your comments queries or criticism here rather than on GTALK.

Pre Script2: For the Critics...The previous two posts were compiled, the data was accumulated from sources and was filtered and presented. The data is bound to be taken form somewhere. So these posts, you cannot call them copied but ya compiled.
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Frantic Injection of huge amount of dollars in the Financial System...
Its pouring Dollars friend!!!!(and weirdly, water here in Pilani)
Are we going to get some of it??????or only financial institutions will take it home and clear their Bad Debts????(Quite Obvious meaning...)


$247 billion... FED????? Let me put it in figures
247,00 crores or 247000 million or 247000000000 Dollars........ or 1136200000000 rupees at Dollar to ruppee being 46.. This has already surpassed the total budget of the Government of India for the last fiscal.
So much of dollars?????? Into the market!! FED is ready to weaken dollar against the currencies!!!!
But den this just FED..

Bank of Japan(BoJ) injects 3 trillion yen into markets..Now i cannot handle the amout of zeroes trillion has...

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, pledges $20 billion( Dont know the conversion in roubles!!!) injection into the stock market and also cut oil taxes.

China to scrap down duty on stock purchases and buy shares in three of the biggest banks in China to boost investors confidence..

India???????Nothing!!!!!!!!!Just supporting!! No 'explicit' injection of Liquidity! No rates cuts!! No 'explicit' heavy purchases in Stock markets?????Why?????

So far we Indians have shown strong resilience to such great pressures. Our markets follow the Global trend but by the end of day recover and negate off most of the losses. With these kind of dramatic pull backs, you might be proud to be an Indian..
The only dominant fallout in India is ICICI hit, by Lehmann bankruptcy,of $350 million,large but relatively meager..
Apart from ICICI, No explicit hit.
This shows how fundamentally strong we are and the extent to which we have decoupled(Yes!!Again the literal meaning will suffice.) from the Global turmoil.
Injection of humongous amount of dollars!! What does this predict???
It simply states how pathetic the present state is.. It states how disastrous future can be. It shows how vulnerable are the Policy makers.. It shows how the world is coupled to THE US(our Uncle SAM!!).

After Bear Sterns, we got Merill Lynch. After Merill lynch we got Fannie Mac and Freddie Mae bailout??. Then the bankruptcy of Lehman.(FED negotiating a proper price for Barclays to buy most of Lehman though!!). AIG $85.8 billion bailout..
What next?????
Morgan stanley??? Goldmann Sachs....???

Haven't it been for the timely intervention of FED, we would have had the same Great Depression of the 1930's when classical economics was followed. 200 banks were closed down,people were on roads and all this just because of a simple assumption- "There exists some restoring forces or an Invisible Hand that will rehabilitate the situation and equilibrium will be restored".

Where is India heading???? The Sensex just kissed our previous estimate of 12.5k. (Very soon than expected though!!). There's ambiguity, fear in the minds of people. Certainty has certainly taken a hit. Half the analysts, optimistic, predict sensex might be resilient and 12k would not be breached but the pessimistic half think that 12k support would be broken and not only broken but shattered.

What does this mean for us??? We students???? Placements worse!! No recourse there!! Acads??? always worse!! So no recourse there!!!
What i believe if we go by the analysis of the pessimists or the optimists fate would never again give us this opportunity.
Let it breach the psychological 12k and make the market conducive and affordable.Then we plunge in our saved pocket money( Or watever) into these so called Efficient Demand Supply driven markets.
But den, the other side of the coin says OIL has started gaining its lost ground, Inflation will not allow the market to have its run. FII( Foreign Institutional investors) sucking out money. Already a billion dollar has been sucked out in the first half of the September.
What to believe??? what theory to go by???
But den its worth to take the risk!!
Its an opportunity that takes a lifetime to come... I dont think so again can we see such great economical, political or psychlogical state of affairs.
How i wish i could exploit it!!!!How i wish i could.......

By
Riddhiman Jain