Showing posts with label ECONOMICS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ECONOMICS. Show all posts
Friday, September 19, 2008
Its pouring dollars!!!Can we have it???
Pre Script: Thank you all for the comments and the criticism too!!!But i would appreciate if you post your comments queries or criticism here rather than on GTALK.
Pre Script2: For the Critics...The previous two posts were compiled, the data was accumulated from sources and was filtered and presented. The data is bound to be taken form somewhere. So these posts, you cannot call them copied but ya compiled..
Frantic Injection of huge amount of dollars in the Financial System...
Its pouring Dollars friend!!!!(and weirdly, water here in Pilani)
Are we going to get some of it??????or only financial institutions will take it home and clear their Bad Debts????(Quite Obvious meaning...)
$247 billion... FED????? Let me put it in figures
247,00 crores or 247000 million or 247000000000 Dollars........ or 1136200000000 rupees at Dollar to ruppee being 46.. This has already surpassed the total budget of the Government of India for the last fiscal.
So much of dollars?????? Into the market!! FED is ready to weaken dollar against the currencies!!!!
But den this just FED..
Bank of Japan(BoJ) injects 3 trillion yen into markets..Now i cannot handle the amout of zeroes trillion has...
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, pledges $20 billion( Dont know the conversion in roubles!!!) injection into the stock market and also cut oil taxes.
China to scrap down duty on stock purchases and buy shares in three of the biggest banks in China to boost investors confidence..
India???????Nothing!!!!!!!!!Just supporting!! No 'explicit' injection of Liquidity! No rates cuts!! No 'explicit' heavy purchases in Stock markets?????Why?????
So far we Indians have shown strong resilience to such great pressures. Our markets follow the Global trend but by the end of day recover and negate off most of the losses. With these kind of dramatic pull backs, you might be proud to be an Indian..
The only dominant fallout in India is ICICI hit, by Lehmann bankruptcy,of $350 million,large but relatively meager..
Apart from ICICI, No explicit hit.
This shows how fundamentally strong we are and the extent to which we have decoupled(Yes!!Again the literal meaning will suffice.) from the Global turmoil.
Injection of humongous amount of dollars!! What does this predict???
It simply states how pathetic the present state is.. It states how disastrous future can be. It shows how vulnerable are the Policy makers.. It shows how the world is coupled to THE US(our Uncle SAM!!).
After Bear Sterns, we got Merill Lynch. After Merill lynch we got Fannie Mac and Freddie Mae bailout??. Then the bankruptcy of Lehman.(FED negotiating a proper price for Barclays to buy most of Lehman though!!). AIG $85.8 billion bailout..
What next?????
Morgan stanley??? Goldmann Sachs....???
Haven't it been for the timely intervention of FED, we would have had the same Great Depression of the 1930's when classical economics was followed. 200 banks were closed down,people were on roads and all this just because of a simple assumption- "There exists some restoring forces or an Invisible Hand that will rehabilitate the situation and equilibrium will be restored".
Where is India heading???? The Sensex just kissed our previous estimate of 12.5k. (Very soon than expected though!!). There's ambiguity, fear in the minds of people. Certainty has certainly taken a hit. Half the analysts, optimistic, predict sensex might be resilient and 12k would not be breached but the pessimistic half think that 12k support would be broken and not only broken but shattered.
What does this mean for us??? We students???? Placements worse!! No recourse there!! Acads??? always worse!! So no recourse there!!!
What i believe if we go by the analysis of the pessimists or the optimists fate would never again give us this opportunity.
Let it breach the psychological 12k and make the market conducive and affordable.Then we plunge in our saved pocket money( Or watever) into these so called Efficient Demand Supply driven markets.
But den, the other side of the coin says OIL has started gaining its lost ground, Inflation will not allow the market to have its run. FII( Foreign Institutional investors) sucking out money. Already a billion dollar has been sucked out in the first half of the September.
What to believe??? what theory to go by???
But den its worth to take the risk!!
Its an opportunity that takes a lifetime to come... I dont think so again can we see such great economical, political or psychlogical state of affairs.
How i wish i could exploit it!!!!How i wish i could.......
By
Riddhiman Jain
Labels:
1930,
BITS Pilani,
BOJ,
Depression,
ECONOMICS,
Fannie Mac and Fraddie Mae,
FD,
GOI,
SENSEX
Friday, July 18, 2008
Cow Economy (Absurd & Simple ideas succeed)
Seems like now a day’s everyone is speaking on the Inflation.....
How has the world changed in the 20th century….I almost spent some 15k in the last 30 days of my ps1…Each and every price has hiked…
Yesterday night I was going through the thesis written by J.C.Kumaraapa on the Cow Economy[He did his B.Sc. in Business Administration at Syracuse and M.A. in Economics at Columbia University under Prof. Dr. Seligman. His thesis, "Public Finance and our (Indian) Poverty" changed him from an European loyalist to a committed Indian nationalist.]….. I will try explaining it to you of whatever little I know about the cow economy…...Cow economy is basically a concept of using cows as an economic tool all over the country to reduce the inflation and the nuclear wars happening over the earth.
80 % of India live in rural areas and the place where we live consist of only 20 %. This concept is for the greater good. All the capital resources are becoming scarce because of over population and the wars...All these things can stop once ppl start utilizing the cow economy......
Implementing the cow economy might be very difficult. It looks like some weird idea...Sometimes these sort of ideas succeed tremendously.
Who thought that the sweetened water will one day become a global based company.....who thought that ITC e choupal would succeed ….Look at this website
http://www.milliondollarhomepage.com/
It earned a million dollar for making a website (bhai 5 crores within 4 months)………….It’s all based around pixel advertising and generating big traffic for advertisers. Visitors play for free - all they have to do is click on the ads for chances to win the jackpot. The more they click, the more chances
they have - and the more traffic you receive.
Now coming to the Cow Economy idea...The cow is the foundation of one of the greatest economies in the world.
How the Cow Economy will help the developing countries like India:
1).DEFENCE---Causes of War :
The recent bomb blasts at blore....ahmedabad...etc have some one behind them...who do not want india to flourish....Being centralized in nature the whole India is affected because of the blasts in some city....
Once India becomes decentralized no one would be interested in putting up the bombs....
When we use the cow and cattle wealth as helpers in our production there is a natural limit to the quantity of production in comparison to the state of affairs that ensues when coal or other such resources of power are utilized, on the expenditure of which there can be no natural limit. Thus the self-sufficiency or the measures of it which is attainable in a cow economy is distorted and disturbed when we depart from it. When the quantity of produce increases, markets are to be sought for it. Europe’s hunt for the markets in the last two centuries was motivated by this economic factor; thus as soon as man changed over from animal economy to power economy violence became necessary. They fought with each other for markets. The result was the first World War-when the countries depending upon the coal economy fought with each other for the market areas.
In the cow and the horse-centered economies we have unlimited sources as we could breed as many bullocks and horses as we needed and, therefore, there being no restriction on the amount available, it does not arouse anybody’s greed or jealousy; but coal and petrol being limited in their supply and quantity, uses of such sources of power lead to friction amongst nations as the source dries up. It is now well recognised that these global wars are in no small measure due to different nations seeking to get control over oil fields. Hence the coal and oil economies lead to conflict amongst nations.
2).Fossil Fuels….
In our villages, the traditional cow dung cake along with firewood is the common fuel. In cities like Bombay if electricity or gas is not available, may. be on account of strike or damage to the plants even for a day than what disorder and discontent life hell is created. Then if these 575000 villages are Deprived of their only source of fuel what would be the result? Even the thought is staggering.
Life needs cooked food. For 82% population of India in villages, kerosene gas or electricity is neither available nor within the villager’s means. For them the only economic and easily available fuel is cow dung cakes and firewood. Cow-dung cake ash becomes a very good fertilizer."
3).Farming:
The bullock pulls the plough, manures the land by its dung, and feeds itself on the left over stalks of the cereal crops which man consumes.
We have nearly 40 crore acres under the crop. To switch this area over to mechanised farming, we shall need five million tractors against which we have today only a meagre 31000.To make these tractors we will need 30 mm. tons of steel and our annual production of steel is 4.5 min. tons.And as we have during the last 20 years made 12000 locomotives, 0.6 min. trucks and automobiles, what a long span of time shall we need to make the needed five million tractors?
The problem of farming does not solve itself by employing 5 ml. tractors at the cost afore-estimated. No cow, no manure. So we shall need to make fertilizers. Our annual needs would be .40 min. tons (against our fourth Plan target of 1.6 min. tons) of different fertilizers Let us see how cow slaughter has contributed to our spiraling costs and unemployment. Unlimited slaughter of cattle and imported economic policies of the Government have brought about a steep price rise.
On account of the bullock and the manure shortage, our food production per acre Is diminished by stages on one hand and on the other hand, because of the ghee and milk shortage cereal consumption increased. The Imbalance between consumption and supply thus created. resulted In higher and higher prices. An accepted principle of economy is that when food prices rise all
other things and commodities start up the price ladder.
4). TRANSPORT:
Our agriculture and industry produce about 1,000 mln. tons. This 1,000 mln. tons of commodities have to be transported from fields to factories and from factories to the consuming centres which are spread over this vast areas, and the major bulk of this transport is carried by the bullock.
For transport we have 12.1 min. bullock-carts, 3,58,000 railway wagons and 2,20,000 motor trucks. Obviously, if these 12.1 mln. bullock-carts were to be removed from the operation, our transport and distribution system, and as a result both agriculture and industries and the resultant national life, would be in a chaos, for the reason that the railway carries only 180 mln. tons and trucks only 120 min. tons. whereas the balance 70 per cent, or 700 mln. tons, is carried by the age old bullock-carts. Therefore it will be seen that if this poor bullock is done with either by slaughter or by negligence, nothing but chaos will result.
Slaughter your cow, and your bullock supply is slaughtered.. Neither trucks nor railways can be built up to replace this transport for obvious economic and technical reasons, roads and so on. A farmer grows food in his field If he has bullocks he would bring his produce to city in his cart and therein he incurs no extra expenses. But once we slaughtered bullocks, his produce has to be transported by truck and of course the cost thereof, resulting in higher price of his produce, will be borne.
This is not imagination, it is a fact based on careful study.
To this our city-educated youth may reply- "If the bullock is inefficient, scrap it, and use the tractor and other modern devices." The only difficulty about accepting this advice is that it is impracticable under present conditions. It is of no use telling us what should be done at some future date. We have to face the problems of our people today, and suggest means of improving their condition under present circumstance and within the resources now available to them. Which villager can afford a tractor and other modern agricultural machinery ?
This thesis if seen has got a great impact for India…..at least this should be implemented in the 82 % of the India…..
NOTE: The thesis on Cow Economy was written by J.C. Kumarappa.This thesis attempts to bring out the most important phase of the basic Indian economy thrown overboard in its stride by the frenzied industrial tempo. Let me state clearly that I am not against industry but most emphatically insist that all industrial development must be in consonance and in conformity with the herein discussed basic Indian economy. Industry should support and not distort this basic cow economy of the country.
PS: Ur comments are welcome. Any doubts or suggestions would help a lot……
Labels:
ECONOMICS,
IDEAS,
RURAL ECONOMY,
THESIS
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